Statistics highlight a rise in civilian casualties, the growing impact of technology in warfare, and an increasing number of active conflicts, making the need for effective early warning systems more urgent than ever.
Our summary highlights similarities and differences between systems and presents potential issues. In particular, we argue that increased transparency and cooperation will enable the production of more accurate and timely conflict forecasts that can guide policy and save lives.
These initiatives use technology to provide state of the art conflict CEWS, either at a country wide level or even globally. CEWS have a hinterland in intelligence practices.
However, the use of these technologies also poses several challenges. For instance, some possess inconsistencies in the quality of data across space and time which undermine the ability of the UN to accurately predict conflict trends.
An Early Warning System (EWS) is a system that integrates EW practices according to a standardised set of protocols within a conflict and policymaking cycle; A Conflict Early Warning System (CEWS) warns specifically for the development of various forms of political violence.
This handbook is designed to outline current needs for y early warning systems (EWS) in fragile, conflict affected and violent (FCV) contexts and some of the challenges in EWS design and development.
This article offers a descriptive review of the form and function of conflict early warning systems over the past four decades. In the process, it provides insight into why many of these systems have yet to live up to expectations.
Conflict Early Warning Systems: Systems to alert people to the risk or onset of militarily violent conflict. Their specific purpose is, ‘to identify and trigger actions to reduce the onset, duration, intensity, and effects of multiple forms of political violence’.
Early warning systems capable of monitoring and forecasting armed conflicts, genocides and other episodes of political violence have proliferated in the last decade, thanks to recent advances in computer science and the growing availability of geo referenced data.
In this article, we will explore the role of technology in enhancing early warning systems, including the use of data analytics, social media, and mobile technologies.
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